What counts?
Identify the exact event, threshold and deadline. “Announced,” “launched” and “completed” describe different outcomes. Check how delays, cancellations and ambiguous results are handled.
Wallion Predictions
Your perspective.
Your position.
Explore event markets with the question, price and resolution rules in view. Understand your position before you commit.
Read the marketThe question is short.
The question is short.
The rules do the work.
Two markets can sound similar and settle differently. Read the event definition before deciding which outcome you want to hold.
Who establishes the result?
Read the named resolution source and dispute process. A headline or social post may be interesting evidence without being the source specified by the market.
When is it settled?
An event deadline does not necessarily mean immediate settlement. Reporting, proposal and dispute stages can take additional time before a position becomes redeemable.
The exact mechanism belongs to each market. Polymarket’s resolution documentation explains how a proposed result becomes a final settlement.
Read the priceA market view.
A market view.
An execution price.
A prediction-market price reflects what participants are willing to trade. It can express a market-implied probability; it does not establish what will happen.
The displayed price
A service may show the midpoint between the best buy and sell offers, or the last traded price. The midpoint is a calculation; the last trade records an earlier execution.
The bid and the ask
The bid is the highest current buying offer. The ask is the lowest selling offer. Their difference is the spread, so buying and immediately selling can produce different prices.
Your order’s price
Read the execution estimate for your chosen size and direction. An indicated probability or chart value is not a promise that your order can trade at that price.
For one service’s display and trading mechanics, see Polymarket’s prices and order book explanation.
Understand the positionPayout includes
Payout includes
what you put in.
In a binary market that settles a winning share at $1, the total payout and the profit are different numbers. Fees belong in the comparison.
FROM PRICE TO PAYOUT
Know what your estimate includes.
- Share cost
- Available sell orders
- Trading fee
- This market’s fee schedule
- Estimated total
- Shares + trading fee
- Winning share
- $1 after resolution
- Losing share
- $0 after resolution
- Potential profit
- Payout − total cost
Available orders and fees determine the estimate. The amount can change between reviewing a position and executing it.
From request to positionAn order can fill
An order can fill
in more than one step.
An order describes a trade you want to make. The filled amount tells you how much has actually traded. Keep those two states distinct.
01Set a price boundary
A limit order sets the most you will pay to buy, or the least you will accept to sell. It can fill immediately against a compatible offer or wait for one. A limit does not guarantee a fill.
02Read the filled amount
Part of an order can trade while the rest remains unfilled. Depending on the order type, the remainder can stay open, expire or be cancelled automatically. Check its status before placing another order.
03Check cancellation
Cancellation concerns the unmatched remainder; it does not undo completed fills. Some markets have a pending delay when cancellation is unavailable. Verify the cancellation result before treating an order as closed.
Service example: Polymarket’s order types and lifecycle.
While a market is openChanging your view
Changing your view
can have a cost.
A position can be sold before settlement only when the service and market allow it.
Available buyers
An indicated price may apply to only part of your position. The order book and liquidity determine what can actually be sold and at which prices.
The exit calculation
Compare the amount you would receive with the original cost and all relevant fees. Selling early can realize a loss even if the eventual event goes your way.
Market access
Check the service’s eligibility requirements and location restrictions before participating. Available events, trading windows and dispute rules can differ between services.
A market request can also include a token allowance.
Read what a signature authorizes